CEUROS Concludes the Semester Lecture Series with a Talk on the Long-Term Transformations of the Italian Economy
The final lecture of this semester’s lecture series, by Prof. Gioacchino Garofoli (University of Insubria), was devoted to an analysis of the major transformations of the Italian economy over the last eight decades. The presentation offered a comprehensive and historically grounded perspective on Italy’s economic development, from the post‑war “economic miracle” of the early 1960s to the profound and persistent crises that have characterized recent years.
The lecture traced the evolution of the Italian economic system within the broader context of European integration and global economic change. It examined the impact of successive shifts in European economic strategies, changes in the international order, and variations in relative prices between manufactured goods and raw materials. Attention was given to the role of geopolitical events and regional conflicts, beginning with the oil price shock associated with the Kippur War, which marked a structural turning point for industrial economies in Europe, including Italy.
A central part of the presentation focused on the major financial and monetary changes that accompanied European integration. These included the establishment of the European Monetary System and the reforms required by the Maastricht Treaty in preparation for the introduction of the single European currency. The lecture highlighted how these institutional changes reshaped national economic policy frameworks and altered the relationship between fiscal autonomy, monetary policy, and European coordination.
The analysis also addressed the globalization phase that led many policymakers and commentators to expect a prolonged period of economic stability, peace, and shared prosperity. Contrary to these expectations, globalization was followed by the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis, which had particularly severe consequences for several European economies. These events were presented not as isolated shocks but as symptoms of deeper structural fragilities within the international and European economic system.
In evaluating the economic policies implemented at both national and European levels, the lecture assessed their effects on growth, investment, employment, and overall societal well‑being. A recurring theme was the frequent inconsistency between the declared objectives of economic policies—especially at the European level—and their actual outcomes. Empirical examples illustrated this mismatch, such as the strong performance of Italy’s real economic variables during the 1980s alongside weak financial indicators, and conversely, the apparent financial stability of some “PIGS” economies prior to 2007 that failed to prevent subsequent deep economic crises. The presentation also discussed how mechanisms of solidarity among European partners operated more effectively during the EMS period than during the introduction of the euro.
In its concluding reflections, the lecture suggested that the international economy may now be entering a further phase of crisis, potentially the fourth major one within the last 15 to 20 years. This recurrence challenges the conventional view of economic crises as exceptional departures from a normal growth trajectory driven by external events. Instead, the lecture proposed considering crises as an integral component of ongoing economic transformation.
From this perspective, the speaker argued for moving beyond a narrow focus on short‑term growth rates and toward an analysis centred on medium‑ to long‑term structural change. The role of investment—particularly public investment—and the renewed importance of the State were emphasized as key elements in fostering economic resilience and supporting the autonomy of the European economy and society.
As the concluding event of the lecture series for the semester, the presentation was followed by an engaging discussion with the audience. We would like to thank all our speakers through the semester, as well as everyone who attended our talks.
